More Indecent Proposals

Well… it’s mid-2020 and as events in human history go, it doesn’t get more exciting than this. A long-awaited global pandemic arrives and governments put their economies in the fridge. And all the while a deeper, slower-burning and infinitely more damaging threat lurks in the shadows. How will history judge us? Did we make the good calls that would save ourselves from the bigger threat?

As humans, we’ve proved ourselves adaptable and resourceful once again, demonstrating a range of responses as individuals and nations — typically, communities have performed admirably while many of our leaders and financial elites display their customary self-interest. Meanwhile, international institutions are nowhere to be seen… side-lined by an up-tick in nationalism and protectionism.

It doesn’t bode well for the climate talks next year in Glasgow. International co-operation appears to be low on the agenda, with governments more interested in recovering their broken economies and — for democracies — preparing to bribe their electorates so they can remain in power.

There is hope, of course. Many thoughtful commentators are proposing measures such as Green New Deal to aid a sustainable recovery. And we have learned that we are capable of making rapid sacrifices if the stakes are high enough — we will always have that to look back to when fundamental change is required in future…which it will be.

But are those wise voices loud and persuasive enough to shift the momentum? History suggests not. “Free trade” (no such thing) has won the argument at each international climate negotiation, starting at Rio in 1992. The truly pathetic adjustments and investments agreed at Paris haven’t even been implemented yet. Meanwhile the global growth binge has continued, fuelled by habitat loss and greenhouse gas emissions, and measured by GDP.

Taxes will have to rise to repay the cost of the pandemic — the only question is who will pay. Last time, with the financial crisis, the burden fell on the poor, and that’s pretty likely this time too. In my previous blogs I explored carbon tax as a potential solution — and it is a real option now. The wealthy generate most of the emissions so carbon taxes will be a way of helping to pay for a fairer and sustainable recovery.

I really hope that the so-called leaders who are planning to meet in Glasgow are giving serious thought to carbon taxes and — ever the optimist — to enforce them globally by agreeing binding international regulations on a par with the WTO rules they love so much.